Financial Model "Biologically Honest" for Rural Farms
Description
Excel/Python template + uncertainty guide. The financial model I use to evaluate rural farms without lying to Excel: it incorporates mortality, seasonality, and climate events.
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🔑 Already purchased? Log in here to download →Most financial models for rural projects assume ideal conditions: zero mortality, constant price, stable climate. The result is a projection that looks beautiful in PowerPoint and collapses in month 4.
This model takes a different approach: biologically honest. Each variable incorporates its real uncertainty:
- Mortality by species: Chickens (8-15%), bees (20-30% annually), fish (10-25% per cycle). Not as a "risk" at the end — as a direct input into the income projection.
- Production seasonality: Real production curves by month (not "12 months × average production"). Includes months of zero production due to molting, drought, or closed season.
- Weather events as a variable: Probability of frost, prolonged drought, or flooding by zone. The model simulates 1,000 scenarios (Monte Carlo) and tells you: "in 80% of cases, your cash flow is positive from month X".
- Interdependency sequence: The order in which you build matters. The model calculates the cost of building in the wrong order (e.g., buying chickens before having the coop).
It includes two versions: Excel (for those who want to see the cells) and Python (for those who want to run 10,000 simulations in 30 seconds).
- Excel template with 12 sheets: biological inputs, income projection, operating costs, CAPEX by phase, monthly cash flow, break-even point, sensitivity analysis, simplified Monte Carlo, scenario comparison, executive summary
- Python script (Jupyter Notebook): Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 scenarios with probability distributions by variable, cash flow distribution charts, and risk percentiles
- Uncertainty guide (PDF, 18 pages): how to estimate each biological parameter without your own data, public data sources (ICA, IDEAM, DANE), and how to interpret the results without self-deception
- 3 preloaded cases: peri-urban poultry farm (500 chickens), apiary (20 hives), mixed garden (2 hectares)
- "Construction sequence" template: order your investments by biological dependency, not by desire
- Video walkthrough (25 min): how to fill the model with the data from YOUR specific project
- Choose your base case: Open the Excel file and select the sheet that most closely matches your project (poultry, beekeeping, garden). If it's another type, use the "Custom" sheet.
- Fill in the biological inputs: Replace the default values with your real data or the guide's estimates. Yellow fields are mandatory; gray ones are optional.
- Adjust the construction sequence: On the "CAPEX by phase" sheet, order your investments according to biological dependency. The guide explains how to determine the correct order.
- Review the cash flow: The "Cash Flow" sheet shows you the base scenario. Find the month where the cumulative becomes positive — that is your minimum survival horizon.
- Run the Monte Carlo (Python): If you want the full distribution, open the Notebook, adjust the parameters, and run. In 30 seconds you'll have 10,000 scenarios with their percentiles.
- Interpret with honesty: The guide has a chapter on "how to read the results without lying to yourself". If the 20th percentile is negative, your project has a 20% chance of not working. That's not pessimism — it's information.